17 · Research

Research

Topic-level research log. Each entry is a live cluster of resources (papers, articles, videos, repos, podcasts) plus working notes for one subject the author is actively gathering material around. Resources go in here instead of into a browser tab group, on the way to becoming notebook essays, writeups, or, eventually, a proper paper library.

1 gathering

Superforecastinggathering
What separates the people who consistently call the future better than chance from everyone else. Gathering material on the Tetlock-Mellers programme, the IARPA Good Judgment Project, and the broader literature on calibration, base rates, and probabilistic reasoning.
started 2026-06-01forecastingjudgmentcalibrationtetlockdecision-making